Digital Twin of Urban Areas as a Tool for Improving Development Project Business Planning

Abstract

In the context of growing competition in the construction market, effective planning is a key tool for optimizing ­resources and minimizing risks, allowing construction companies not only to survive, but also to achieve sustainable profit growth through accurate forecasting and coordination of all stages of project implementation. One of the important documents in the implementation of a development project is a business plan. This document is developed based on an assessment of the urban development potential of the territory. The amount of project costs, the accuracy of the financial model, and, most importantly, the effectiveness of the project itself depend on how accurately and correctly this analysis is carried out and a business plan is drawn up. Digital technology tools are currently being actively used to improve the accuracy of forecasts and development scenarios, the ­reliability of set parameters, and the quality of information received. One of these tools is the creation of a digital twin of the territory.

Coordinated development of transport infrastructure and investment projects has also recently become an impor­tant factor. Based on the analysis of the transport network and the real estate market, demand is studied and the unmet demand of potential buyers are identified. Based on the data obtained, project concepts are being ­developed that reflect their uniqueness and attractiveness. Financial modelling, risk assessment, investment justi­fication and forecast of results are carried out, and the developed business plans become the basis for making investment decisions.

Despite the active introduction of digital twins into urban planning practice, the issue of quantifying their impact on the synchronization of transport infrastructure and development projects has not been sufficiently studied in the scientific literature. The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to develop and formalize methods for assessing infrastructure lag and ways to minimize it.

The aim of this study is to develop an integrated model for quantifying the impact of the digital twin of an urban area on transport load parameters and the economic efficiency of development projects. The calculation of transport demand is based on aggregated normative indicators of urban mobility, and the assessment of the economic effect is based on a comparative analysis of investment attractiveness.

The theoretical basis of the research was scientific work in the field of construction organization, real estate deve­lopment, urban planning and digitalization. Research methods: scenario modelling and comparative analysis.