Creating probabilistic construction schedules in Microsoft Project

Abstract

The PERT method allows generating and analyzing probabilistic construction schedules. In project management software this method takes the form of an information toolkit. However, to use this method to its full extent, it requires information on pessimistic durations of work. A number of methodological approaches based on theoretical provisions of mathematical statistics and expert evaluation methods could potentially be tapped to obtain this information. Under these approaches, a matter of principle is that the conclusions made are based on knowledge and data obtained in the past. However, the data required for PERT analysis may either not exist altogether, or not be representative, or fail to reflect the specifics of a project planned. Therefore, to get out of such situations, we have developed a methodology for discounting work time/durations, which allows the formation of pessimistic work schedules. The practical utility of the proposed method lies in the fact that the calculation of pessimistic durations of works is made dependent on the discount rate, which by its basic purpose is used to assess the economic efficiency of investment projects, and therefore is always a relevant parameter for any construction project under development.